SP 500 Futures

(ESM25) 

The chart is key to this analysis.

ESM25

From 3/4/25 update,

The idea of a long term top from the major Gann square cluster (6102.00/6142.00),

11/30/24

Above it, the long term target area above is 6102.00 to 6142.00. This is a cluster of major Gann squares and the area that a possible longer term top can come from. A failure to...

has the potential to take this market back to the long term swing point at 5153.50, this is 38.2% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. The Cluster of squares has already turned the market sideways for the last 3 months with very large swings and it doesn't look like that is going to end any time soon. Here are a couple areas before the long term swing point to watch for a quick turn back up.

From last week,

They had a $280 rally from the long term 23.6% level at 5546.00 on the nearby chart, however as we pointed out in the last update, June is now the lead contract and we would have to watch the 38.2% retracement back to its contract high at 5815.00. It had one close above it (it always needs 2 to violate a key level) and the next day it was right back below it and closed slightly below the 38.2% level on the nearby chart at 5760.00 and the quick break from it has been over $200 so far.
 

A 38.2% retracement should send the market to a new low to keep the current trend intact (ONE44 38.2% rule) and a failure to do so in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the start of the next Bull run (ONE44 78.6% rule). Having said that, we will be watching the 78.6% retracement on the nearby chart at 5577.00, there is also a major Gann square at 5566.00 for added support. This will be the key area for the next week. Holding this area can send this market sharply higher. It has already hit the 78.6% level on the June chart at 5617.00. A failure to turn higher from this area will have us looking for the long term swing point at 5153.50.

Use 5577.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the first target on a rally from a 78.6% retracement is 78.6% of where it just came from, with the current low this is 5790.00, it is also the 200 day average. This level will move down with any new low next week. The long.....

NOW,

It has now hit the long term target of 5153.50 from the cluster of Major Gann squares between 6102.00 and 6142.00 and this week should tell us if the long term trend remains positive despite the recent break, or there is a lot more to come on the downside.

To say a lot of things happened in the last few weeks is a massive understatement, especially when looking at the Fibonacci retracements. 

After holding 23.6% back to the 2022.00 low on 3/13/25 the market rallied to 38.2% back to the ATH on the June contract as mentioned in the updates above at 5815.00, following the ONE44 38.2% rule we would be looking for a new low to keep the current down trend intact, but that we would be watching to see if it failed to make a new low in the area of a 78.6% retracement (5577.00) it hit this on Monday and as we said the first target when using the ONE78.6% rule is 78.6% the other way and that a lower low on Monday would lower that level above. With Mondays low the 78.6% level was 5770.00, this was hit when the first Tariff announcement started and it quickly failed from there. The point is no matter what the fundamental reason is for the market to move it is usually reacting off of Fibonacci retracement, or major Gann squares and a lot of times both.

Friday closed below the long term swing that is 38.2% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. It will need to close back above it on Monday to keep the long term trend positive and if so following the ONE44 38.2% rule the long term target would be a new ATH. As always we will watch all the retracements on every move to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the long term target. The first test on any rally would be 38.2% back to the ATH at 5496.00, a lower low next week will lower this level.  A failure to get back above 5153.50 can send this market 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, also a major Gann square.
 

Use 5153.50 as the swing point for the week. 

Above it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the ATH at 5496.00. The longer term target is 78.6% of the same move at 5940.00. Any rally that can't get above 23.6% at 5335.00 is a very negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.

Below it, the long term target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00. Before then there are major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point point when closed below at 5022.25, 4889.50, 4759.25 and 4634.50.

We have done 46 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.

Here is the latest.
 

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